Let me say up front that I offer this post just for friendly discussion. I don't think my recommendations will be followed by the Reds, and I'm guessing many on this board will disagree with me. I'm just tossing it out there to promote some conversation the week before the season starts.
I give you two players:
Player #1: 29 years old
Slashline #1: .271/.331/.479/.810
Slashline #2: .304/.373/.543/.916
Slashline #3: .405/.468/.619/1.087
Player #2: 29 years old
Slashline #1: .221/.268/.300/.568
Slashline #2: .172/.213/.276/.489
Slashline #3: .258/.258/.290/.548
Those of you who know me can probably guess where this is going. Player #1 is Kris Negron; Player #2 is Zack Cozart. The slashlines are from last season, last September, and Spring Training 2015.
Of course the sample sizes of Slashlines #2 and #3 are small, and of course they represent mostly meaningless games. The larger trend I'm trying to note is that Cozart was an early bloomer who is fading, while Negron is a late bloomer who is rising. The two players are about the same age (Negron is actually a few months younger), but they are heading in diametrically different directions.
Cozart's batting stats have gone down each of the last three years--precipitously. Last season was so bad that he had the lowest OPS of ANY REGULAR PLAYER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES. Look it up. At .568, his OPS was #146 out of 146, nearly 20 points below M. Dominguez of Houston, whoever that is.
So this is the point where everyone yells, "But Cozart's an outstanding fielder who saves us games with his glove." To which I say, "I agree." I love watching Zack Cozart play shortstop. But you know what? I've seen Kris Negron play the infield and he's excellent. Good glove, soft hands, good range, strong arm. Check his minor league stats at SS and you'll see they're almost the equivalent of Cozart's. I'm not saying Negron is Cozart's equal in the field--few in MLB are--but he's not far off.
I'm not stupid--I know full well that Negron's role on this team is supersub off the bench. I get it. I also know that if Cozart went down with an injury this season, it's likely they'd call up Suarez to start in his place. In the Enquirer today, it was noted that Suarez hit only.242/.316 with 4 HR in a brief stint with Detroit last year. That doesn’t sound all that promising--until you realize that Cozart hit .221/.268 with 4 HR last year, in more than twice the ABs.
Many of you will say, "Cozart's the least of our problems. If he bats 8th and fields well, we can play around him." To which I will once again say, "I agree." But noting that he's the least of our problems doesn't mean he's not a problem. It's a problem when a guy's offense diminishes dramatically during three prime years of his career. It's a problem when he has the lowest OPS in the major leagues. And it's a problem when there is a guy on the bench who is blooming while Cozart is fading.
I'm not silly enough to believe that Negron could be anywhere close to an All-Star shortstop. But I honestly believe he could put up numbers equal to or better than Cozart's 2012 or 2013 numbers, with little dropoff in the field. And c'mon, you gotta love Negron's hustle, attitude, and game.
All of this is rather pointless because we saw last year that Cozart has the longest leash of anyone on this team. He stunk on toast at the plate all season and still got 543 PAs. I honestly hope he turns things around this year. I'm not rooting against him; I would be delighted to see him rebound. But if he keeps grounding out to the left side, popping up to right, and/or striking out (his three favorite options), I hope they'll give Negron some of his innings. And if Suarez is lighting it up in Louisville and takes Cozart's place, Zack might be out of a job--because he's nowhere near as valuable on the bench as Kris Negron.